Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.092189 0.107206 0.124437 0.145789 0.171702 0.202342 0.241621
2025-10-05 0.071138 0.089222 0.111981 0.143136 0.185323 0.241410 0.323257
2025-10-12 0.058309 0.078067 0.105035 0.145439 0.206062 0.296402 0.446773
2025-10-19 0.048133 0.068256 0.097787 0.145860 0.225367 0.357911 0.610477
2025-10-26 0.040487 0.060484 0.091849 0.147066 0.247455 0.434826 0.846550
2025-11-02 0.033451 0.052241 0.083458 0.142352 0.259053 0.501300 1.113849
2025-11-09 0.027443 0.044508 0.074296 0.134019 0.261911 0.554994 1.404571
2025-11-16 0.023747 0.040010 0.069867 0.133641 0.281991 0.661100 1.947847
2025-11-23 0.020728 0.036162 0.065842 0.133131 0.302674 0.785701 2.720699
2025-11-30 0.018496 0.033371 0.063307 0.135318 0.332163 0.961199 3.993233
2025-12-07 0.016552 0.030793 0.060673 0.136654 0.361244 1.165719 5.879752
2025-12-14 0.014492 0.027628 0.056132 0.131980 0.371335 1.317586 7.949333
2025-12-21 0.011966 0.023177 0.048041 0.116218 0.341018 1.292169 8.878264
2025-12-28 0.010863 0.021610 0.046344 0.117745 0.371958 1.587399 13.992836
2026-01-04 0.010074 0.020603 0.045799 0.122634 0.420147 2.054947 24.700649
2026-01-11 0.009283 0.019461 0.044686 0.125576 0.464481 2.598599 43.685251
2026-01-18 0.008595 0.018449 0.043709 0.128788 0.514494 3.314632 82.275040
2026-01-25 0.007795 0.017041 0.041368 0.126542 0.538028 3.903878 139.421288
2026-02-01 0.006982 0.015480 0.038302 0.120682 0.539476 4.321072 215.029368
2026-02-08 0.006472 0.014616 0.037077 0.121490 0.581105 5.345106 446.577367
2026-02-15 0.006010 0.013808 0.035861 0.121980 0.623209 6.597496 1011.122073
2026-02-22 0.005654 0.013227 0.035223 0.124744 0.685417 8.533385 3012.686960
2026-03-01 0.005312 0.012634 0.034430 0.126622 0.745796 10.922397 10950.876538